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Macro news: North Korea’s missiles flew over Japan’s airspace this morning, the panic index soared, and the safe-haven assets soared. Today’s US June S&P house price index and the August Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index will be released, Chicago Fed President Evans He will deliver a speech at the large bank executive meeting held by the Fed, focusing on the US August non-farm payrolls report data; the Chinese central bank’s open market net investment of 10 billion yuan today, ending 6 days of net withdrawal, the current pressure of banking supervision Stable and rising, the interest rate of funds has not yet dropped significantly, and we can continue to pay attention to central bank actions.
Metal plate:
Shanghai Gold 1712
The situation in North Korea is once again tense, and precious metals are flying into the sky. After the multi-day consolidation, the Shanghai 1212 contract showed a bottoming out trend yesterday. The night market opened higher and higher. The situation in the Korean Peninsula was once again strained, and the futures price continued to rise. The US August will be released on Friday. Agricultural employment data, or the impact on gold prices, the recent strong gold shocks, it is recommended to operate in the short-term, after today's sharp rise, you can pay attention to the rallies to leave the field, wait until the non-agricultural data is settled and then re-elected.
Shanghai Copper 1710
Recently, the state has implemented strict supervision policies on environmental protection, and the effect on the market is obvious. The domestic supply-side reforms, along with the in-depth development, also play a positive role in non-ferrous metals. Lun copper last week in the case of the strengthening of the basic metal line, out of the trend of upward breakthrough, a few recent corrections but a small margin, the previous period constantly prompted to pay attention to the 10-day line position support performance, more than a single callback intervention in batches, Zhou The five-night trading of goods was comprehensively adjusted, and the performance of Shanghai copper remained strong. The short-selling customers also gave the opportunity to enter the market.
Shanghai Zinc 1710
LME zinc price broke through the historical high of 3,000 US dollars, the spot is basically facing the zinc price support is still strong, September domestic zinc mine processing fee downgrade shows that the zinc supply market supply has signs of tightening again. Under the strong support of tight supply and low inventory, it is expected that the downside of zinc price is limited. In the near future, although the Shanghai zinc has been adjusted, the bullish pattern has not changed. The new ones can continue to enter the market and control the position.
Thread 1801
In July, the macro and meso-level data showed some signs of weakening, which constituted a negative trend for steel price trends. The NDRC issued guidance on minimum inventory and maximum inventory system to promote market supply and demand balance, and the current price of steel mines continued to pull back. The pressure, but environmental protection and production constraints still exist. Under the black turbulent situation, the recent performance of the thread is relatively weak. Last week, it reminded me to pay more attention to the shock and timely take profit. Today, the black system has fallen across the board, and there are signs of initial peaking. It is recommended to see more and less, and the market can follow the short-term follow-up of the market.
Coke 1801
Double-focus early diving, the black system fell back again. At present, although coking enterprises have limited production of environmental protection and high steel mills, the coke price is still supported, but the price is already at a relatively high level. Recently, steel prices have also slightly adjusted, and coke prices have room to fall. It is recommended that short-term short-sell operation, temporary support for the position below the 10-day line can be concerned.
Chemicals:
Rubber 1801
Affected by the overall strong atmosphere of industrial products, rubber is strong in the near term, but the premium in the long-term is higher, and the market outlook is affected. At present, the funds are not very motivated to participate in the glue. In the near future, the fluctuations in the market are basically driven by the market sentiment. There is no obvious trend. It suggests that the continuous impact of the 16700 position is unsuccessful and the pressure is obvious. After diving today, we will support the support interval of 16000- 16300, pay attention to the performance of the interval can be followed up in a short line.
Asphalt 1712
The weekly inventory report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories fell, but gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased. After the news came out, crude oil was weak and volatile, and the chemical industry was generally adjusted. However, the outlook for the asphalt market is about to usher in the construction season. Under the condition that some basic conditions of the industrial chain are matched, the price of asphalt still has room to rebound. It is recommended that the previous period will continue to hold more, and the short-selling customers will continue to enter the market on dips.
Cotton 1801
The recent transaction rate of the national reserve cotton has rebounded significantly. Under the current situation that the industrial and commercial inventories in China have increased year-on-year, the national reserve cotton can still maintain a hot turnover status. In addition to the price-performance advantage, it also boosts the downstream demand. The sales of autumn and winter fabrics are quite smooth. The textile season of Jinjiuyin 10 will bring about a booming situation in both purchase and sales. The spot transaction will support the cotton price. Recently, Zheng cotton has fluctuated, but the center of gravity has been rising continuously. Support can be concerned, the performance has fluctuated within a narrow range in the past two days, and more than one can intervene on dips.
Cardamom 1801
The weekly crop growth weekly report of the US Department of Agriculture shows that the good growth rate of US soybeans is good, and the new crops of US soybeans are still probable. The number of imported soybeans in China is huge, and the short-term supply pressure is still very large. The environmental supervision of demand is becoming more and more strict, and there is a great restriction on the aquaculture industry and the feed mill. The demand for soybean meal terminal is weak. Recently, soybean meal has remained weak and short-term rallies have been short-selling. However, the results of the field survey by American agricultural institutions have been much lower than the expectations of US soybeans. This has given US soybeans a certain support and does not recommend excessive bearishness.
Soybean oil 1801
Dow Jones News, Despite the negative factors such as India's increase in palm oil import tax rate and the US anti-subsidy tariff on Indonesian biodiesel, the Dutch cooperative bank still raised the average price of crude palm oil in the third quarter, the Dutch cooperative bank pointed out The spread between CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil futures has provided support for palm oil prices. The recent strength of soybean oil and palm oil has also confirmed this point. The long-term US soybean production is still a major factor in the pressure of global oil and fat products, and we are not overly concerned. In the early stage, there are more signs of high and low signs, and the bottom is concerned with the support of 6250-6300. Today, the lowest is 6306, and continue to pay attention.
Reference position: Shanghai copper 1710 contract point near 51700
Asphalt 1712 more than a single point 2710
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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