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The second quarter of this year, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose nearly 50%. Data show that as of June 30, the main contract of cotton futures 1701 to close at 14,725 yuan per ton. Analysis of the industry said the rapid rise in cotton prices, on the one hand the 2016 national cotton acreage decreased by about 10% this year is expected to significantly reduce the national cotton production is now on the other hand, driven by the devaluation of the renminbi, the textile industry is expected to pick up the warmer exports Cotton industry has brought strong boost, which makes the cotton market driven by improved supply and demand fundamentals. It is understood that from the end of 2014 purchasing and storage, cotton production began to decline, due to natural disasters, this year's cotton production may be only 4.3 million to 4.5 million tons. Import point of view, but also from the end of 2014 purchasing and storage began, the state began to control the number of imports, mainly to reduce the distribution of import quotas. Monthly imports hit a record low this year. Earlier, the market generally expected March throwing cotton reserves. Insiders said that if the Reserve throw in March cash, the market may fall, the market may be lower than throwing cotton reserve price. Because last year was a similar situation, the reserve of 1 million tons was thrown in July last year, and the actual turnover was 63,000 tons. However, in fact, throwing storage was postponed to May, far exceeding market expectations and the consumption of commercial inventories increased during the two-month period. Analysts pointed out that the current low cotton business inventories, the current rise in cotton prices, the current need to pay attention to whether the downstream mills can withstand the pressure of cotton prices, the next will enter the cotton market in the off-season, but also to consider The speculation of the weather and the specific impact on production. And how strong the driving force for the consumer season in September. At present, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts close to 40,000 tons, if the price difference is too large, there will be more cash into the delivery. Another recent hot spot on the market is the cotton area and the recent weather. Relevant monitoring data show that the sown area of ​​cotton dropped drastically in 2016, with a national reduction of 14.3%, a drop of more than 20% in areas other than Xinjiang, a relatively large subsidy in Xinjiang, and a target price of 18,600 yuan / tonne The sown area was smaller, at 6.3%. Regardless of the impact of State Reserve cotton, the supply of cotton will be in short supply in 2016, which will give some support to the cotton price. In addition, the recent high temperatures in Xinjiang and hail affect the weather yields, market capitalization took the opportunity to speculation, but the market is expected to weather the reduction caused by yield is expected to be relatively limited, the impact of production will not exceed 400,000 tons, March 1, 50,000 tons / day, 400,000 tons that is about 8 days throwing reserves, the current cut if considering the new year throwing reserves, the basic impact of the new year's supply and demand pattern, the overall pattern of supply and demand for the new year is still bearish. Therefore, the price hype caused by speculation is very limited. However, in the face of the current price trend of cotton, there are also differences in the market. Some people think that the reason why the rise of domestic cotton now has a certain relationship with the rhythm of the State Reserve's cotton throwing reserve. As long as the State Reserve cotton to increase investment efforts, cotton prices will plummet. In this regard, some analysts said that for the current main contract cotton prices should be dynamic to see, first of September contract prices in the warehouse receipts and other topics under the speculation, the price premium is larger. It is noteworthy that the current textile enterprises spun cotton procurement, textile raw materials stocks are still relatively low, in order to maintain production, the need to continue to replenish inventories, but the lack of cotton resources in the spot market, spinning more stock reserve cotton supply inventory, business auction positive. Analysts said that the cotton price continued to be strong, throwing throwing slow delivery, high turnover, rising prices, giving positive feedback to the market, foreign cotton sources tight, the growing season easy weather, the cotton theme is still positive Coupled with the funds to promote the market as a whole is still running well, but continued to rise or finishing needs.
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