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In recent years, a revolutionary new industry development force, the industrial 4.0 upgrade marked by intelligence, is triggering a new round of industrial transformation competition around the world. In China, it coincides with the industrial transformation and upgrading, and economic growth is looking for a special node for new kinetic energy. This impulse is particularly prominent.
On July 20 this year, the State Council issued the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan", which proposed a strategic plan for China's new generation of artificial intelligence "three-step", which clearly stated that by 2030, China will become the world's major artificial intelligence innovation center. The artificial intelligence core industry has a scale of more than 1 trillion yuan, driving the related industries to exceed 10 trillion yuan.
Over the years, from the machine substitution to the unmanned factory, to the core technology of the machine tool production line independently research and development and mastery, a group of new intelligent applications represented by civil drones, driverless technology, fully automated machine tools, etc. The intensive emergence of the Pearl River Delta shows that the Guangdong manufacturing industry is gradually approaching the upper end of the Industry 4.0 value chain in this global smart manufacturing competition.
Intelligent manufacturing
"Unmanned factory" behind Tesla
Not long ago, Tesla, the “big wave†in the automotive industry, released the new model Model3. Look at this list of suppliers of parts and components that lead the world's fans to compete for the waist. Dongguan Enterprise Zhongtai Mould is in the list.
The reporter visited this Dongguan enterprise for this purpose. In the workshop of Zhongtai Mould Co., Ltd. in Hengli Town, Dongguan City, more than 150 robots complete almost all production work from raw material processing to finished product assembly – this advanced unmanned factory is unveiled Open a new picture of the future of manufacturing. The breakthrough of Zhongtai Mould is a typical silhouette of the transformation of Dongguan factory.
As early as two years ago, Dongguan had the first “unmanned factoryâ€. In the polishing workshop of Guangdong Changying Precision Technology Co., Ltd., the process of 650 workers was originally required. Because of the addition of 60 robots, only 60 workers are needed. According to reports, the labor cost has been greatly reduced, and the effect of machine generation is also reflected in the improvement of work efficiency and the significant decrease in product defect rate. “Industrial intelligence systems have nearly doubled productivity. With smart manufacturing upgrades, we have quickly established a competitive advantage in the industry,†said the company’s head.
The machine generation brings not only the reduction of labor and the improvement of quality and efficiency, but also stimulates the effective demand of a wide range of applications in the robot and intelligent equipment industry, and it is forced to transform the real economy.
The person in charge of the Dongguan City Economic and Information Bureau told the reporter that relying on the market attraction, Dongguan has successively docked with domestic industrial robots and intelligent equipment leading enterprises such as Dalian Machine Tool Group and Shenyang Machine Tool Group, and also cultivated Yingtuo Technology, Topsta and Ai. Erfa and other projects with technological advantages and industrial scale, and enterprises that provide equipment technology for precision manufacturing enterprises are becoming the backbone of supporting the accelerated development of the industry.
Dongguan Jinsheng Precision is one of them. This company mainly develops and produces precision structural parts in the field of consumer electronics. It took advantage of the first batch of intelligent manufacturing demonstration projects of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2015. In May 2015, Jinsheng Precision acquired Genesis Machinery of the equipment manufacturing industry for 2.4 billion yuan. , fully transforming towards the direction of smart equipment solution providers. Cao Haojie, director of the president's office, said that the company will transform the smart equipment solution provider to help the 3C industry's peers to intelligently transform the production line.
The emergence of intelligent manufacturing solution service providers has made manufacturing service provides a new support point for China's manufacturing upgrade. Taking Dongguan as an example, according to the survey of service-oriented manufacturing by the Dongguan Economic and Information Department, 26.4% of enterprises in Dongguan have tried to change to system integrators, and 12.9% of enterprises have begun to provide full lifecycle management services. Some advanced enterprises have begun to take the lead. Product manufacturing is a core shift to products, services and services throughout the industry chain.
Robot figure is becoming more and more common
According to the latest statistics of relevant departments in Dongguan, from September 2014 to January 19, 2017, a total of 2,303 special projects for “machine substitution†were reported, with a total investment of about 33.5 billion yuan and 66,711 sets of new equipment. . The project involves the two pillar industries of electronic information manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and the most featured projects in the packaging and printing industry.
When the relevant departments of Dongguan analyzed the data, the specific results were reflected in the “three upgrades†and “two declinesâ€: “one improvement†was to stimulate the growth rate of industrial technology transformation investment. In 2016, the city’s industrial technology reform completed an investment of 33.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year. The growth rate is 44%; the “second promotion†is to enhance the competitiveness of the industry. After the completion of the project, the labor productivity has increased by 2.1 times on average; the “three promotion†is to improve the product quality, improve the standardization of automation and intelligent equipment, work accuracy, and reduce the production inspection. Affected by human factors, the product qualification rate increased from 87.4% to 92.2% on average. The "two declines" can reduce the employment of more than 190,000 people, and the average cost per unit of product drops by 9.87%.
Once upon a time, Dongguan manufacturing, represented by foundry manufacturing, enjoyed the trade and investment dividend brought about by the deepening of the global value chain, but the profit margin and the lack of voice in the value chain. The gradual formation of a high degree of path dependence in the global manufacturing chain makes it difficult to upgrade the current industry and climb the global value chain.
Nowadays, the new trend of Dongguan's mold machine tool equipment manufacturing industry is a typical epitome of Chinese manufacturing jumping to a higher form. The industrial revolution represented by "intelligence" in this round is deepening, and the United States, Germany, and Japan are taking a new path in revitalizing manufacturing. They rely on technological innovation, take digital and intelligent as the core, seize the commanding heights of international competition, improve the core competitiveness of economic development, and seek the initiative of future development.
Industrial robot technology is a highly integrated embodiment of cutting-edge automation technology in modern industry, and is an irreplaceable important equipment and means in advanced manufacturing. "Made in China 2025" makes it clear that promoting smart manufacturing is the main direction. As a major manufacturing town in Guangdong, the government has specially formulated implementation documents and given a large number of preferential incentive policies. Nowadays, in a large number of factories in Guangdong, robots are becoming more and more common.
The economic impulse of "machine generation"
“Intelligent†has spread rapidly in the land of South Guangdong. Intelligent robots have entered the fields of automobile manufacturing, textiles, food, precision instruments, military industry, etc., and are gradually being widely used and applied. However, at the Spring Festival 2014, exhibitors were still talking about the possibility of “smart†production, and at the Spring Festival 2017, innovation and intellectual production have become a must-have for competitive exhibitors.
Liu Dixing, the person in charge of Guangzhou Huadu Silian Toys who participated in the Canton Fair for many times, calculated the account for the reporter: The enterprise packaging process requires 10 workers, each with a monthly salary of more than 2,000 yuan, including food, housing and social security. The labor cost is more than 20,000 yuan, and the total amount is close to 250,000 yuan a year. In addition, there are additional factory benefits, subsidies, incentives and other expenses. And a packaging machine only needs tens of thousands of yuan, two packaging machines can be equivalent to 10 people's work efficiency. “It is enough to hire two workers to manage the machine. Counting the cost of the machine and the cost of electricity, in general, the cost of purchasing the machine is similar in the first year, but there is no cost to purchase the machine.†Liu Dixing, who first tasted the machine production, said bluntly. In the long run, the machine can save costs in the next year, and the cost can be recovered in two or three years. This is a very considerable change. However, he also said that toys are still labor-intensive industries. "Machine generation" can only be started from packaging and carried out from individual processes, which is difficult to fully spread.
The sample experience of Guangzhou Huadu Silian Toys is very common. The research report from the Blue Book of Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences shows that the use of "machine generation" can generally recover costs in three years, and the service life of robots can reach 10 to 20 years. The price of industrial robots ranges from tens of thousands to several million yuan. The price of a spot welding robot system used by domestic auto manufacturers is between 600,000 and 1.2 million yuan.
Example of research report: An electrical appliance manufacturer's compressor transformation of a machining line requires two robots. The entire project transformation cost is about 1.42 million yuan (about 0.71 million yuan per set), and each annual operation and maintenance cost is about For 20,000 yuan, it can reduce about 5 employees (6 employees, and there is still one control and maintenance production line left). The labor cost is 60,000 yuan/person·year, and each worker works 8 hours a day. Calculate, labor costs can be saved every year = 5 people × 2 × 60,000 yuan / person = 600,000 yuan.
The invisible hand of the government and the invisible hand of the market have allowed manufacturers to join the "intelligence" tide after competing with each other.
At the gold fair this year, Guangzhou Radio and Television Express (7.850, 0.02, 0.26%) Financial Electronics Co., Ltd. launched a finger vein vending machine that attracted the attention of many visitors - the site users only need to press a finger to "buy" "A bottle of mineral water. The finger vein identification technology applied to it can be used for ATM self-service terminal identity authentication, which brings unmanned possibility to the future finance. The bank uses finger vein recognition service, and customers will not need ID card, bank card or even signature. You can get full banking service through the bank counter.
In Yunfu, in 2016, Guangdong Nanmu Machinery Equipment Co., Ltd. cooperated with other companies to develop the world's first fully automated production line for pig equipment. The entire production line was automated from material to finished product, achieving unmanned operation. In the past, the traditional workshop, which required about 130 people, now only needs 12 people (mainly management personnel and control and maintenance engineers). This year, the company launched an automated workshop for poultry equipment, which will be unmanned.
From Foshan to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the “F5 Future Storeâ€, a 30 million A+ round of financing provided by the venture capital innovation workshop, has announced that it will launch more than 50 new stores this year, and the whole store will be intelligent and unmanned, making each home The store opening cost only needs 150,000 yuan.
In the polishing workshop of Dongguan Changying Precision Technology Co., Ltd., the process of 650 workers was originally required. Because 60 robots were added, only 60 workers are needed now.
An electric appliance manufacturer's compressor transformation of a machining line requires two robots. The entire project transformation cost is about 1.42 million yuan (about 0.71 million yuan per set), and the annual operating and maintenance cost is about 20,000 yuan. Can reduce about 5 employees (the original 6 employees, as long as one maintenance and maintenance production line is reserved), the labor cost is 60,000 yuan / person • year, each worker works 8 hours a day, calculated according to two shifts, saving every year Labor cost = 5 people × 2 × 60,000 yuan / person = 600,000 yuan
The company's packaging process requires 10 workers, each with a monthly salary of more than 2,000 yuan, including food, housing and social security. The labor cost of the process in one month is more than 20,000 yuan, and the total amount is nearly 250,000 yuan a year. In addition, there are additional Factory welfare, subsidies, incentives, etc. And a packaging machine only needs tens of thousands of yuan, two packaging machines can be equivalent to 10 people's work efficiency.
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a professor at the Party School of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee: Embracing the megatrend of intelligence to let the society share welfare
Whether it is Industry 4.0 or the fourth industrial revolution or other concepts, it is simply a trend of intelligence. Industry, commerce, and service industries can all be intelligent. They can take money by subway and ATM. In fact, in daily life, we have begun to enter the scene of unmanned service. The phenomenon of unmanned shops and unmanned factories in the field of non-existence is so high that the discussion is so hot. Behind it is the future development trend of intelligence, networking, personalization, customization, and service. My attitude is to embrace this trend with arms.
Unmanned factories and unmanned shopping malls are not very rigorous concepts and are an expression of the image. All the values ​​are created by human beings. In fact, only a certain production process may be unmanned, but it also needs programming, management and other aspects behind it. These links still require people to participate.
The motivation for this trend is actually the basic problem of economics: people's needs are unlimited and resources are limited, specifically for economic, technical, security and environmental reasons. In recent years, resources and prices have been rising, labor resources are structurally short, and the use of machines can save costs. With the continuous development of technologies such as the Internet and intelligence, technologies are mutually integrated and integrated, and they are mature enough for the market. Furthermore, people's requirements for quality of life and working environment, some of the work with robots to deal with more environmentally friendly, can also avoid work-related injuries.
As for the concern that robots have robbed workers of their work, it has already appeared in the first industrial revolution. The enclosure movement of "going to eat people" in history is an example. Every industrial revolution will bring such problems, and it will produce such a period of pain, but at the same time it will inevitably create a new economy, new forms of business and new employment.
In addition, it is not that the new economic phenomenon comes out, the original economic phenomenon will die. Although the emergence of e-commerce has had an impact on physical stores, there are also physical stores that have achieved great development through e-commerce, and e-commerce has also driven Consumption of the entire society. Intelligent manufacturing is progress. For the period of pain caused, the government, enterprises and society should jointly take actions to shorten the pain period, reduce the shock, and let the whole society share the benefits brought about by economic development and technological progress.
Lin Jiang, deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macau Pearl River Delta Research Center of Sun Yat-sen University: Unmanned factories can't replace the "creative factory"
With the development of technologies such as the Internet and artificial intelligence, technological advancement represented by unmanned shops and unmanned factories is indeed the trend of the times. The emergence of unmanned shops, relying on the emergence of artificial intelligence, is a change brought about by technologies such as data technology and information technology.
Their emergence has far-reaching implications for commercial retail and manufacturing itself. For example, Dongguan, the development of manufacturing has driven the rapid development of commerce and logistics. If unmanned factories and unmanned shops are really popular, it is indeed a problem for alternative workers and salesmen. However, the emergence of new business and new formats has created new demands on the labor force, and the consumption level will also develop toward high-end, which will force local industry to upgrade.
What will technological advances bring? In the book A Brief History of the Future, the author mentions that tremendous technological advances will subvert our work, leisure, education, health, culture, and political systems. A new class, the useless class, may emerge in human society. They are useless in the economy, they are unemployed and unable to find employment, and social prosperity can guarantee their lives.
For this kind of worry, we should not look at the "wolf is coming" mentality, but actively respond. For the all-round era of artificial intelligence, the government, enterprises and society need to be laid out in advance, for example, how the displaced labor will be transferred. The government needs to plan ahead and cultivate in a targeted manner.
In the future, more industries may be challenged, and industries such as accounting and lawyers may be unmanned. Industries with established rules and not requiring too much creativity are easily replaced by unmanned ones. However, industries that need creativity, such as musicians and writers, are less worried about being replaced by robots. Unmanned factories and smart factories may be more advantageous in the future, but in the "creative factory", the role of human beings cannot be replaced.
For Guangdong, Guangdong's economy is very open and inclusive. The foundation of the manufacturing industry is solid, the industry is well-equipped, and it is adjacent to the developed markets of Hong Kong and Macao. The manufacturing industry has an urgent need for machine generation. In addition, Guangdong's culture encourages innovation. Under this general trend, Guangdong will be in the future. It may play a leading role in the country.
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