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Starting in mid-December 2016, the textile market price stopped its sharp rise and entered a high-end narrow-adjusted state. The entire January price trend showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In February, multiple positive factors superimposed, and the possibility of a stronger textile market is more likely. However, under the backdrop of weak global economic recovery, it is expected that the increase will be limited.
Low price of cotton
According to the business community monitoring, as of January 31, the average price of the 3128B class lint market in the domestic spot market was 15,802.86 yuan/ton, down by 0.11% from the beginning of the month. In terms of futures, Zheng cotton 1705 contract to the main shock, as of January 26 settlement price of 15,650 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of January 3 settlement price of 15,165 yuan / ton rose 3.2%. At the same time, the progress of the listing of Indian cotton was postponed. The US cotton exports were significantly better than expected, and international cotton prices remained strong. The domestic new cotton picking basically ended, and the sales increased year-on-year, new cotton processing rose year-on-year, and sales increased year-on-year.
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Business Society analyst Sun Minhua believes that during the Spring Festival by the strong US cotton exports and the decline of the US dollar index, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) futures rose sharply, India's domestic cotton prices also performed well, driving the domestic cotton market to start a big red. At the same time, the downstream market players dominated the market before the wait-and-see attitude, inventory is generally at a low level, driven by the strong upward trend in foreign cotton yarn, it is expected that the enthusiasm of the library will be increased, which has great support for cotton prices. However, due to the expected turnaround of the State Reserve Cotton in March and the increase in domestic cotton planting intentions in 2017, the overall supply of the market is relatively sufficient, and it is difficult for the Chinese cotton market to stand alone. Overall, driven by the rise in the external cotton market, it is expected that the price of lint prices in February will be stable after a brief rise.
Chemical fiber boom
According to the business community’s monitoring of 14 products in the chemical fiber segment, there are a total of 10 products with rising prices, of which the price of polyamide industry has been rising significantly. Nylon market supply is small, and in the northern area in late December there was a large area of ​​smog, which seriously affected the starting of caprolactam, and the market price continued to increase. The downstream terminal knitwear market was basically shut down, and the demand performance was poor. Under this high price, there was no intention of storage.
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Dong Huaying, a business analyst, said that the current nylon market is affected by the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand can not meet the market operation, the price has entered a rest state, but the cost increases and its own supply is in short supply, forming a favorable support, the market outlook is full of confidence, it is expected that the price of nylon will remain volatile Strong mainly.
PTA industry chain performance is weak. Japan and South Korea paraxylene (PX) equipment accidents have given strong support to the cost, making raw material PX center of gravity. Coupled with the financial mood hype, boosting the short-term sharp rise in the price of PTA futures. However, the PTA load continued to be high, the market supply and demand as a whole loose, and the downstream aspects of downstream factory parking, transportation and other factors, the spot trading was light, hindering the spot price of PTA rose. In February, part of the PTA plant had an overhaul plan, at the same time, the PX center of gravity at the cost end shifted upwards, the post-holiday downstream plant resumed work, and the favorable factors such as increased demand were superimposed. It is expected that the PTA price will be more likely to rise.
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The favorable cost support and external speculation have caused the textile market in January to remain at a high level and fluctuate. In the middle of the year, the demand for the Spring Festival holiday has weakened and has declined. Xia Ting, a textile industry analyst at the business club, believes that in February, the favorable factors such as the overhaul of chemical fiber equipment, the external cotton market, and the recovery of textile companies will be superimposed. It is expected that the market will be stronger in February. However, the current global economic recovery continues to be weak, and the textile industry's export situation remains to be seen. The overall cost pressures of textile companies are also difficult to completely ease, and it is expected that the increase will not be too great.
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